Fermented foods are up 149% in restaurant, the biggest food trend of 2018. In 2019, restaurants should expect customers to be seeking probiotic, fermented foods all year long advises Upserve, the restaurant management company. The funkier, the better. Traditional fermented food like sauerkraut actually saw an 18% decline in restaurants. Americans are craving more adventure on their plate, so kombucha and kimchi are selling well. Also a growing trend: plant-based items.

Read more (Upserve Restaurant Insider)

Grocery store food prices are expected to rise this year. Projections by the USDA show prices increasing 1-2% in 2019. Still, that’s the fourth straight year of deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices. The biggest price increase for fermented products are dairy products (3-4%) and bakery products (2-3%). A few fermented products are projected to decrease in price: meats (-0.25% to +0.75%), processed fruit and vegetables (-1-0%) and nonalcoholic beverages (-0.25% to +0.75%). Dairy products will be a particular concern for the U.S. food industry. Because of trade tariffs imposed on Mexico and China, dairy exports are declining. In the U.S., demand for dairy products is “relatively weak,” but expected to recover.

Read more (Supermarket News)

A Japanese tofu company has developed a “miracle protein” – a fermented vegan cheese. Sagamiya Food, a 60-year-old co. known for their tofu, makes the vegan cheese by fermenting low-fat soy milk. Chefs argue vegan cheese often lacks flavor because it is not fermented. Sagamiya Food’s vegan cheese – called Beyond Tofu Miracle Protein – is blazing a future for fermented vegan products.

Read more (LiveKindly)

The global tempeh market will grow 4% over the next 5 years. More supermarkets will carry tempeh, contributing to the fermented soy product’s growth.

Fermented food producers, it’s time to be vigilant. Economists predict America is on the cusp of a recession. Thankfully, sectors of the food industry remains strong in an economic downturn. Food is a basic necessity consumers won’t cut out of their budget.

But that’s no reason to wait out a recession without caution. That recession-proof statistic only applies to select parts of the food industry. During the Great Recession of 2007-2010, household food spending declined by 7 percent. The United States Department of Agriculture reported it was “the largest inflation-adjusted decline in food spending that accompanied a recession since 1984.” Food purchase patterns also changed, as budget-conscious consumers focused on money-saving methods.

Based on food spending data, there are key lessons fermentation leaders can use to prepare for an impending economic downturn. Here are five ways consumer food spending will change in a recession.

1. Grocery Store Spending Remains Fairly Steady

When the economy is bad, more consumers cook their own food. Spending at grocery stores dropped minimally during the Great Recession, falling only 1.3 percent from 2006 to 2009. The number of home-cooked meals increased, as did the amount of meals eaten in the home with family members.

2. Restaurant Spending Plummets

Restaurant spending rises and falls along with income levels. Dollars spent on food away from home declined 18 percent ($47 billion) during the Great Recession. This large dip in restaurant sales didn’t recover for 10 years. Restaurant sales began decreasing in 2006, and didn’t return to pre-recession levels until 2016. Restaurant Business Online said 2009 and 2010 “would prove to be the

worst two years in the modern era for the restaurant industry.”

3. Consumers Focus on Health

During an economic crisis, consumers are not turning to cheaper, unhealthier food options. USDA data shows adults had “increased concern” for their nutrition during the Great Recession. When the economy was at its worst, more adults were rating their diet as excellent, very good or good as compared with fair or poor. Food quality also improved. Total calories from fat and saturated fat declined; cholesterol content dropped, while fiber intake increased. More adults were also using the Nutrition Facts Panel on food packaging, too.

4. Discount Retailer Sales Rise

As consumers cut their budget, they trade high-end stores for discount, big-box retailers. Sales at Costco, Wal-Mart and Target all climbed 15 percent from 2007 to 2008. Economists point to the purchasing power of big-box retailers. Big-box prices help the retail giants outlast luxury stores and small shops during a recession. Natural supermarket Whole Foods, once criticized for premium prices, shed their “Whole Paycheck” reputation after the recession decreased their sales. In 2008, they began offering discounts, adding store brands and emphasizing value in their marketing.

5. Cost-Cutting Methods Reign

Consumers eliminate discretionary spending in a recession. They clip coupons, watch food sales, shop for generic brands and buy items in bulk. Interestingly, the average number of shopping trips to the grocery store increased during the latest recession, but the amount paid per transaction was 12 percent less. Private-label products (or generic or store brands) expanded faster than well-known, national brands during the recession. A record number 810 new private label food and beverage products was released during the recession, seven times more than the amount released in 2001.

(Photo: Foodies Feed)
(Graph: USDA)

There’s a major cheese surplus in America – 1.4 billion pounds of cheese. It’s enough for a cheese wheel the size of the U.S. Capitol building, the largest cheese surplus the country has seen. Multiple factors are causing the surplus. First, consumers are shunning processed cheese. Second, they’re buying more specialty, European-style cheeses in small quantities. Third, there’s an excess of milk produced at U.S. farms. And fourth, the current trade wars have dropped cheese shipments to China (down 63 percent) and Mexico (down 10 percent).

Read more (WBur)

The Fermentation Association (TFA), getting more people to enjoy fermented products. Join us at fermentationassociation.org .

Fermentation is dominating 2019 food prediction lists. The New York Times says fermented foods and fermented drinks will rule in 2019. The year’s flavor profile will be “Sour and funky, with shades of heat,” melding fermented ingredients with millennial taste buds. Probiotics and prebiotics will continue to reign as consumers focus on gut health. “As the obsession with digestive health dovetails with the fascination for fermenting, kimchi, sauerkraut and pickled things will work their way into new territory. Smoothies with kefir will be popular, and kombucha will show up in unexpected places like salad dressings,” the article continues. What will you be eating in 2019?

Read more (New York Times)

After fermented milk Yakult was featured in the new romantic comedy “To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before,” stock in the company climbed 2.6 percent. Called a “Korean yogurt smoothie” in the movie, fans spotted the Japanese probiotic drink immediately. After the movie’s release, Yakult’s “mention frequency” spiked on social media. Prior to the product placement, Yakult’s stock shares were dropping 6 percent after slow sales growth.

Read more (Bloomberg)

America could be facing a pickle shortage. Since the mid-2000s, a mildew has been destroying cucumber crops. Fewer farmers are growing cucumbers now because of the high amount of failed harvests. USDA records show pickling cucumber acreage has declined 25 percent between 2004 and 2015. Lina Quesada-Ocampo, vegetable pathologist at North Carolina State University told NPR: “This is the number one threat to the pickle industry.” Thankfully, vegetable breeder Michael Mazourek, a professor at Cornell University, is developing a cucumber variety resistant to mildew.

Read more (NPR)